New model reveals achieving an 80% HPV vaccination rate could eliminate nearly 1 million cases of male oropharyngeal cancer this century

据德克萨斯大学健康科学中心的调查员报道，全国范围内的10名青少年对人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）的疫苗接种的努力可以预防本世纪的934,000例病毒相关的男性口咽癌。休斯顿乌西卫生）公共卫生学院柳叶刀区域卫生 - 美国人.

At the start of each decade, the Healthy People program of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services establishes goals to reduce the most significant preventable threats to health, which include an 80% target for the HPV vaccination program. However, in the U.S., just 54% of adolescents and only 21% of young adults were adequately vaccinated as of 2019.

To gauge the effect of accomplishing an 80% target on male oropharyngeal cancer, the most common cancer caused by HPV, UTHealth Houston researchers created a simulation model to project the development of this cancer over a lifetime and to measure the impact of the HPV vaccination.

“Our study is the first to develop and validate a comprehensive mathematical modeling framework of the natural history of oral HPV infection and its progression to oropharyngeal cancer,” said Ashish A. Deshmukh, PhD, MPH, the study’s senior author and an associate professor in the Department of Management, Policy and Community Health and associate director of the Center for Health Services Research at UTHealth School of Public Health.

“到2025年，实现80％的目标并保持其目标可能导致预防934,000个口咽癌，并可能在2070年代末导致其消除；鉴于目前的疫苗接种率为54％可能会预防792,000例病例，但在本世纪末不会发生口咽癌。” Deshmukh说。

该研究的主要作者，Uthealth公共卫生学院的博士后研究员Haluk Damgacioglu博士说：“我们正处于癌症发病率和死亡率下beplay苹果手机能用吗降的时代。口咽癌是仅有的几种迅速增加的癌症之一。”

“This work is a clear and important reminder that to prevent avoidable suffering and death from HPV-related cancer in our future, we must act by protecting adolescents in our present,” said Gary M. Clifford, PhD, study co-author and deputy head of the Branch of Early Detection, Prevention and Infections of the International Agency for Research of Cancer, a part of the World Health Organization.

HPV是口腔咽喉口的口咽中的癌症的主要原因。Damgacioglu说，每年大约有16,000例口咽癌病例，而HPV造成了70％以上。

该疫苗几乎阻止了所有引起癌症的感染。疾病控制与预防中心人类免疫实践咨询委员会建议在11至12岁时接种HPV疫苗接种，并在26岁之间进行接管疫苗接种。

Anna R. Giuliano, PhD, study co-author and director of the Center for Immunization and Infection Research in Cancer at the Moffitt Cancer Center in Tampa, Florida, added, “Results from our study clearly demonstrate the potential HPV vaccination holds for preventing tens of thousands of oropharyngeal cancers in the U.S., just one of six cancers HPV causes in men and women.”

Heavy lifting will be needed to meet the 80% goal. Last year during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, HPV vaccination rates plummeted by more than half and have continued to remain lower than in prior years. The COVID-19-related vaccine drop and potential delays in recovery could lead to as many as 6,200 additional cases of male oropharyngeal cancer through the century, reported the authors.

The keys to reaching this vaccination milestone, according to Deshmukh, include addressing the vaccine safety concerns of parents, stronger recommendations from health care providers, and correcting erroneous online information.

Deshmukh说，该投影是由第一个HPV自然历史模拟模型制成的，该模型捕获了许多因素，包括疫苗的功效，HPV基因型的毒力和持久性，不同群体的敏感性以及畜群免疫的影响。

Predicting the long-term impact of HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer is challenging because the cancer is slow-developing and natural history is complex. “Such analysis is not possible without using state-of-the-art modeling,” said Damgacioglu, noting the importance of modeling studies to understand the long-term impact of HPV vaccination for cancer prevention.

休斯顿的乌西卫生合着者包括Kalyani Sonawane博士和博士学位的David R. Lairson。哈佛医学院的Jagpreet Chhatwal博士也是合着者。

Titled “Long-term impact of HPV vaccination and COVID-19 pandemic on oropharyngeal cancer incidence and burden among men in the USA: A Modeling Study,” the research received funding from the U.S. National Cancer Institute (R01CA232888) and the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (K01MD016440, part of the National Institutes of Health).

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